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THE FUTURE OF WORK IS a sTORY THAT WILL DEFINE THE 21ST CENTURY. 

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SUMMARY

According to an Oxford University study published in 2013, nearly half of the tasks that are performed in today's jobs
 are at risk of being replaced by technology within the next 20 years. Four years later that astounding figure seems all too real.   

The threat that driverless vehicles pose to the 3.5 million truck drivers in the US – which includes 1.7 million long haul operators – is well understood, but automation will affect every part of the labor market.


  • In retail, as many as 7.5 million jobs could be automated out of existence between online shopping, customer service chat bots and self-serve, in-store checkout systems. 
  • In hospitals, machine algorithms are replacing lab techs for analyzing scans and samples, while some surgical procedures have been automated and robot nurses are on the horizon. 
  • In restaurant kitchens, thousands of cooks may be replaced by robot chefs.
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“We are at an inflection point where we have the opportunity to be able to channel a tremendous amount of energy into changing the calculus of what may be one of the biggest changes in our economy,” says Gary Bolles, who advises on disruptive innovation trends as a partner at the San Francisco-based consultancy Charette. As co-founder of eParachute, an online career service based on the work of his father, Richard N. Bolles (What Color is Your Parachute?), he has a unique and deep perspective on issues relating to work. According to Bolles, changes in the labor market due to automation will be “even bigger and more disruptive than the shift from an agricultural to an industrial society.” 

The future of work is a story that will define the 21st century. Yet despite wide-ranging implications, the narratives of dislocation have been focused on jobs that are never coming back, such as coal mining. Those narratives are narrow in scope—focused on an industry that at its height employed no more than 863,000 people—but they capture an essential truth: Turbulence has replaced the traditional American story of steady financial progress over a lifetime.

This change has profound consequences says Chris Gebhardt, founder of Stir, Strategy and Story, a consultancy that leverages storytelling for social impact. "Deaths of despair" among middle-aged white Americans without college degrees have been rising for nearly a decade due to the loss of steady, well-paying jobs to automation and globalization, according researchers at Princeton University. It mirrors what has long been a tragic reality in impoverished inner-city neighborhoods, where the lack of opportunity sparks a downward spiral of social dysfunction, depression, substance abuse and death. 


To reverse this trend, misleading and politically-driven rhetoric, such as President Trump’s promises to bring back coal-mining jobs, must stop.
Instead, working through both private and public sector channels, a set of "conditions" must be established that are designed to help people not just survive, but actually thrive through the turmoil of an economy in disruption. For example, one condition could be the overhaul of the K-12 educational system to better prepare students for the jobs of tomorrow, rather than the jobs of today. To succeed, these students must become lifelong learners, able to "re-skill" in order to meet the demands—and opportunities—of a labor market where transition has become a constant. 


​TAKE-AWAYS


  • Advances in efficiency can have a social cost. As the pace of technological change increases, more resources are needed to help people better navigate a constantly shifting job market. 
 
  • Representation matters. By framing the labor crisis in terms of unemployed college graduates, the struggles of those without degrees have been overlooked, with political ramifications. 

  • The education system is out of sync with the needs of a shifting economy. “Schools are not set up to train people for jobs that existed 20 years ago, let alone for those that exist today."  
 
  • All work needs to be valued. The future of work does not need to be and should not be focused only on STEM fields. 
 
  • Collaboration between public and private sectors is essential to chart a new path for the future of work. ​
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  • We need to turn our focus from innovations that simply disrupt work, to innovations that enhance workers to allow them to perform the critical work of the future.


RELATED

  • Unbundling Work: Learning to Thrive in Disruptive Times | Gary Bolles | article
 
  • Unbundling Work: The Lite Version | Gary Bolles | article 
 
  • Unbundling Higher Education | Gary Bolles | article
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  • Unbundling the Middle Class | Gary Bolles | article 
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  • ​Unbundling Media | Gary Bolles | article 
 
  • ​What jobs will still be around in 20 years? Read this to prepare your future | Guardian | article
 
  • Chris Gebhardt, Natasha Tsakos & Elliot Kotek on Storytelling | KIN Global 2016 | video
 
  • Self-driving trucks: what's the future for America's 3.5 million truckers? | The Guardian | article
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  • This dairy farm's best worker is a robot | Marketplace | article & audio


Gary Bolles
Partner, Charette
Co-founder, eParachute


Christopher Gebhardt
Founder, Stir Strategy & Story
former EVP, Participant Media

  • Protecting Workers in a Patchwork Economy | New America Foundation | report

  • Technology, jobs and the future of work | McKinsey & Company | report
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